Millennials are leaving cities like Vancouver and Toronto in droves, and they’re heading for rural communities like Peterborough.
Not only is this fascinating news, but it’s especially significant when it comes to the local real estate market. Buyers and sellers in rural communities owe it to themselves to be well-informed as to how this will affect their local market and personal real estate plans.
The Numbers Aren’t Pretty For Toronto
Statistics Canada recently released their latest intraprovincial migration report, and it showed that the number of people leaving metropolitan cities like Toronto has been rapidly accelerating over the past 5 years. The overall numbers are shocking, and the group with the fastest growing migration rate is the Millennial demographic.
Net intraprovincial migration is the total number of people moving to or leaving the city to move to or from another part of the province. Here’s an example to help you understand how it works:
If 5 people move into Toronto and 0 people leave the city, the net intraprovincial migration is 5.
If 5 people move away from Toronto and 0 move to the city, the net intraprovincial migration is -5.
From 2012 to 2017, the net intraprovincial migration numbers in Toronto are staggering. The total number was -142,465.
That means that over 142,000 more people left Toronto to move to other parts of the province than people that moved to the city.
This trend has increased by 77% compared to the previous period, and it signals a huge change in attitude towards city living.
Even more interesting is the fact that the rate of Millennials (20-34 yrs old) leaving Toronto is up 306% compared to the previous period. For comparison sake, people in the 35-49 age bracket only saw an increase of 48%.
This isn’t good news for the city of Toronto, but there are a few likely reasons for this alarming trend.
Fueling The Exodus Out of Toronto
When the net intraprovincial migration rate is as bad as Toronto’s has been, it could indicate underlying problems in the local job market, sociological environment, real estate market, etc.
For Millennials, a demographic typically entering their prime-earning years and beginning the hunt for a home, one reason likely lies in the cost of living in Toronto.
As of January 2018, the average sale price of a detached home in the Toronto area was over $1.2 million. The average rental price for a one-bedroom apartment was $2,020 around the same time.
Cost-conscious Millennials making province-average salaries (roughly $51,000) are likely finding it difficult to breathe easy in Toronto with those types of living expenses.
With the average sale price of a home in Peterborough ringing in at just under $450,000, it’s easy enough to understand why people are fleeing insane Toronto prices and migrating to rural communities for affordable (and high-quality) living.
Local Peterborough Buyers & Sellers Should Be Paying Close Attention…
Peterborough residents should be sitting up and paying close attention to the rate of people leaving Toronto.
Look at what happened in the Durham Region in the past year or two as one possible outcome.
With Toronto buyers migrating out of the city to more rural, yet still accessible regions, property prices rose dramatically and buyer competition was fierce. Sellers were making a killing, although they quickly realized that profit wouldn’t make it very far if they hoped to remain in their local market…
While that’s only a possibility and not a guarantee, it does seem increasingly likely with the coming developments on Peterborough’s horizon.
The 407 is a substantial factor in Peterborough’s GTA accessibility, and it’s expected to be completed by late 2020. The Peterborough Social Planning Council has factored that into their projections of a population increase of 13,000 by 2031.
Talk of commuter rails being re-established is yet another factor that could considerably buoy Peterborough’s population growth.
With all that population growth, you can count on an increased demand for property, higher sale prices, and a much more competitive real estate market.
One thing is for sure, the changes in our community promise exciting times ahead for Peterborough!
If you’re interested in making a move or simply in learning more about Peterborough’s real estate market, feel free to reach out to me via email, firstname.lastname@example.org, or via phone at (647) 628-2003 anytime.